Due
Tuesday, February 29, 2000
1.
Use exponential smoothing method with trend and seasonality
to forecast copy usage in the B&E Division (COPY_SETS.XLS). Use an alpha of 0.5, a beta of 0.5, and a gamma
of .5 to get started and use weeks 1 through 5 to initialize the model. Forecast sales for the next five weeks
(i.e.16-20). Graph the observed and
forecasted values on a fully labeled line graph. Does this seem to be the appropriate forecasting method for this
data? Use Solver to determine if there
is a better set of smoothing constants.
2.
Use the three methods that we learned for determining the
regression model (formulas, built-in Excel functions, and Data Analysis Tools)
on the SCANNER data set. For this, month
would be the independent variable and unit would be the dependent
variable. Construct a fully labeled scatter
plot that includes the trend line.
State the regression model and interpret its coefficients. Interpret and comment on the Coefficient of
Determination, the Correlation Coefficient, and the Standard Error of the
Estimate.