Due
Tuesday, February 22, 2000
1. Rework the MILK example using the moving average method with N=2, N=4, and N=5. Which value of N gives the best forecasting accuracy?
2. Use the moving average
method with N=4 to forecast copy usage for the semester in the Business and
Economics office. The data are
available in the file COPY.XLS. Graph
the observed and forecasted values on a fully labeled line graph. Does this seem to be the appropriate
forecasting method for this data?
3. Rework the COPY
problem using the weighted moving average method. Let Solver determine the best set of weights for you.
4. Use simple
exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.3 to forecast copy usage. Estimate copy usage for weeks 16 through 20.
5. Use the
exponential smoothing method with trend to forecast dealer sales for the VW bug
(VWBUG.XLS). Use an alpha of 0.2 and a
beta of 0.3. Forecast sales for each
quarter in the year 2000. Graph the
observed and forecasted values on a fully labeled line graph. Does this seem to be the appropriate
forecasting method for this data? Use
Solver to determine if there is a better set of smoothing constants.