7.3 Using Simulations in Probability

To estimate probabilities which are too complex to compute, and to experience probability

Using Random Number Table (page 469 ) or Handout to simulate

TOSS COIN 0-4 Heads 5-9 Tails …. Or Even Heads, Odd Tails

In groups, simulate a 4-child family - each group do 25 trials

Use 4 digits and for equally likely use even/odd or 0-4/5-9

0 girls

1 girl/ 3 boys

2 girls/ 2 boys

3 girls/ 1 boy

4 girls

In an attempt to reduce the growth of its population, China instituted a policy limiting a family to one child. Rural Chinese suggested revising the policy to limit families to one son. Assuming the suggested policy is adopted and that any birth is as likely to produce a boys as a girl, explain how to use simulation to answer the follow:

a) What would be the average family size?

b) What would be the ratio of newborn boys to newborn girls?

Assume Carmen Smith, a basketball player, makes free throws with 80% probability of success and is placed in a 1-1 situation where she is given a second foul shot only if the first shot goes through the basket. Simulate 25 attempts at a 1-1 situation to determine the probability that Carmen scores 0, 1, or 2 points.

**Note: Could simulate with a spinner (4/5 and 1/5)

Verify by doing trees and geometry

A school has 500 students. The principal is to pick 30 students at random from the school to go to the Rose Bowl. How could this be done using a random-digit table?

Chocolate Chip Cookie Experiment - pages 471

Similar to light bulb experiment

Handout in class for Light Bulb and Random Digits table

Do Birthday problem with Calculator